Mar 11, 2008

Hillary's path to the nomination

So how can Hillary win? These are the scenarios I can think of in order of best outcome to worst.

  • She can win more pledged delegates. Based on current polling that path will close on the May 20th primaries in Oregon and Kentucky.
  • Next up is Obama implodes ala Vitter, Craig or Spitzer. This is what super delegates are for.
  • Now we're in dodgy territory. This is the "will of the voters" argument. Popular votes, primary votes and primary popular votes. In addition to this being a hard argument to sell, the numbers don't back it up.
  • An even worse variation on "the will of the voters" is only counting voters if they live in big states or in blue states. Discounting voters based on ideology or geography.
  • Lastly there's super delegate arm twisting.
The downside is that in addition to being in the order of best to worst outcomes, they're also in order from least to most plausible. Clinton is working to win this cycle - not to be veep and not to run again in 2012 (she'll never win a caucus again). So the Clinton campaign is actively pursuing all of these strategies. Update: Another take on this.

Mar 9, 2008

Obama's 2002 speech

Obama supporters deliver his October, 2002 speech. One week later, the House and Senate (including Senators Clinton and McCain) voted to authorise the war in Iraq.

You want a fight, President Bush? Let’s fight to wean ourselves off Middle East oil, through an energy policy that doesn’t simply serve the interests of Exxon and Mobil.

Those are the battles that we need to fight. Those are the battles that we willingly join. The battles against ignorance and intolerance. Corruption and greed. Poverty and despair.

The consequences of war are dire, the sacrifices immeasurable. We may have occasion in our lifetime to once again rise up in defense of our freedom, and pay the wages of war. But we ought not – we will not – travel down that hellish path blindly. Nor should we allow those who would march off and pay the ultimate sacrifice, who would prove the full measure of devotion with their blood, to make such an awful sacrifice in vain.

If that's inexperience, I hope he's as inexperienced today as he was in 2002.

Mar 8, 2008

Paths to the nomination

An article on DailyKos covers how Obama can win the nomination. I'll update this with the follow up article on Clinton's path.